Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chargers vs. Rams
Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- The Rams rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 61.5% pass rate.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accrue 7.7 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Rams have called the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in football.
- Tyler Higbee has accrued far fewer air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
- Tyler Higbee’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.6% to 65.8%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
