Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyler Higbee from EV Insight

Tyler HigbeeReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyler Higbee’s receiving yards prop is set at 36.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 36.5 (-110) after it opened @ 42.5 (-120).

Pros

The Los Angeles Rams will be rolling out backup quarterback Baker Mayfield in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Rams are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Rams rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 61.5% pass rate.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Tyler Higbee to accrue 7.7 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Rams have called the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Tyler Higbee has accrued far fewer air yards this year (21.0 per game) than he did last year (32.0 per game).
Tyler Higbee’s sure-handedness have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 74.6% to 65.8%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards