Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tyler ConklinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Seahawks vs. Jets
Right now, Tyler Conklin’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Tyler Conklin has run a route on 72.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
- Tyler Conklin has been among the top pass-game TEs this year, averaging a stellar 32.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on a measly 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have utilized play action on a measly 23.1% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
