Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Travis Kelce has accumulated substantially more receiving yards per game (86.0) this year than he did last year (76.0).
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (57.0) versus TEs this year.

Cons

The Chiefs are a big 12.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the 5th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat-padding.

Projection

THE BLITZ
87
Receiving Yards