Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tommy TrembleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Tommy Tremble’s receiving yards prop is set at 9.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 9.5 (-120) after it opened @ 9.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Tommy Tremble has accounted for a colossal 8.8% of his offense’s air yards this year: 76th percentile among tight ends.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Tommy Tremble’s ball-catching skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 62.0% to 56.4%.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has conceded the 8th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 40.0) vs. tight ends this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
15
Receiving Yards
15
Receiving Yards
