Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for T.J. Hockenson from EV Insight

T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards

Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 46.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 46.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-114).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to total 8.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 99th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
T.J. Hockenson has notched significantly fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
T.J. Hockenson’s receiving efficiency has diminished this year, notching a measly 5.10 yards-per-target compared to a 7.11 rate last year.
The Green Bay Packers defense has yielded the 5th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 38.0) vs. tight ends this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
47
Receiving Yards