Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 75.5 (-110) after it opened @ 72.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to accumulate 10.0 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
- Stefon Diggs has compiled substantially more receiving yards per game (90.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has excelled when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-least in the league.
- The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
91
Receiving Yards
91
Receiving Yards
