Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Steelers
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 61.1 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Pat Freiermuth to garner 6.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
- Pat Freiermuth has accumulated far more air yards this year (53.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
- The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Completion% in football (77.4%) versus TEs this year (77.4%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to run the 2nd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Pat Freiermuth’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.1% to 69.5%.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on just 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (3rd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
