2024 FTN NFL Power Rankings Through Week 15: Who Takes Over the Top Spot?
Daniel Kelley
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 12.5 (-120) after it opened @ 12.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
- Mike Gesicki’s receiving efficiency has gotten better this season, compiling 8.40 yards-per-target compared to just 6.84 mark last season.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
- Mike Gesicki has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (54.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.3%).
- Mike Gesicki has posted far fewer air yards this season (28.0 per game) than he did last season (56.0 per game).
- Mike Gesicki has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (23.0) this year than he did last year (43.0).
- Mike Gesicki has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league among TEs, catching just 65.4% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 22nd percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
