Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will be starting backup quarterback Nick Foles in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.3 plays per game.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 98.4% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accrue 8.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Michael Pittman has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (64.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Michael Pittman’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating just 6.97 yards-per-target vs a 8.64 mark last year.
- The New York Giants pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in football (64%) to wide receivers this year (64.0%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
