Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Steelers
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 7.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Mark Andrews’s 67.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 61.7.
- The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in the league (53.0) vs. TEs this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Mark Andrews has put up quite a few less air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
- Mark Andrews has accrued many fewer receiving yards per game (56.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
- Mark Andrews’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.1% to 63.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
