Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mark Andrews from EV Insight

Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards

Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).

Pros

The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to accumulate 7.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Mark Andrews’s 67.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit better this season than it was last season at 61.7.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has yielded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in the league (53.0) vs. TEs this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Mark Andrews has put up quite a few less air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (96.0 per game).
Mark Andrews has accrued many fewer receiving yards per game (56.0) this year than he did last year (82.0).
Mark Andrews’s sure-handedness have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.1% to 63.6%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards