Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Juwan Johnson from EV Insight

Juwan JohnsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-120/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).

Pros

The Saints are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Juwan Johnson has gone out for fewer passes this season (68.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (34.6%).
THE BLITZ projects Juwan Johnson to accumulate 4.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Juwan Johnson has accrued many more air yards this season (37.0 per game) than he did last season (17.0 per game).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 58.5% pass rate.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: 9th-least in the league.
Juwan Johnson’s pass-game effectiveness has worsened this year, compiling a measly 8.10 yards-per-target vs a 9.20 mark last year.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (65.6%) to TEs this year (65.6%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
31
Receiving Yards