WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 97.5 yards (-145/+120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 97.5 (-145) after it opened @ 95.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
- Justin Jefferson has accumulated a lot more receiving yards per game (111.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).
Cons
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
- Justin Jefferson has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (111.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
- Justin Jefferson’s 71.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
- The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
97
Receiving Yards
97
Receiving Yards
