Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Justin Jefferson from EV Insight

Justin JeffersonReceiving Yards

Right now, Justin Jefferson’s receiving yards prop is set at 97.5 yards (-145/+120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 97.5 (-145) after it opened @ 95.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
Justin Jefferson has accumulated a lot more receiving yards per game (111.0) this year than he did last year (90.0).

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
Justin Jefferson has posted significantly fewer air yards this year (111.0 per game) than he did last year (128.0 per game).
Justin Jefferson’s 71.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 81.0.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
97
Receiving Yards