NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-105/-120).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 56.5 (-120) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to garner 7.9 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has compiled quite a few more receiving yards per game (66.0) this season than he did last season (28.0).
Cons
- The Chiefs are a big 12.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (82.2% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (93.0%).
- The Denver Broncos defense has conceded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 119.0) to WRs this year.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against wideouts this year, giving up 6.57 yards-per-target to the position: the least in the league.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.98 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
