Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jordan AkinsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Jordan Akins’s receiving yards prop is set at 23.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 23.5 (-117) after it opened @ 23.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Jordan Akins has notched many more receiving yards per game (29.0) this season than he did last season (18.0).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has yielded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) versus tight ends this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 28.55 seconds per snap.
- The Houston Texans offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Houston Texans have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards
37
Receiving Yards
