Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-142/+104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 83.5 (-142) after it opened @ 83.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 98.8% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the most receiving yards per game in football (166.0) versus wideouts this year.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving effectiveness has declined this year, accumulating just 8.86 yards-per-target vs a 10.34 mark last year.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has excelled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.08 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
95
Receiving Yards