Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 24.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 24.5 (-115) after it opened @ 24.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to total 5.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
- The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
- Hunter Henry has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
- Hunter Henry’s 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 34.8.
- Hunter Henry has compiled quite a few less receiving yards per game (28.0) this year than he did last year (39.0).
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
