Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accumulate 5.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 36.0) to TEs this year.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown good efficiency versus TEs this year, conceding 5.38 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
