Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Raiders vs. 49ers
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-114).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to total 6.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among TEs.
- George Kittle has been among the leading pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an impressive 51.0 yards per game while grading out in the 94th percentile.
- George Kittle’s receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 74.2% to 78.6%.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (74.9%) to tight ends this year (74.9%).
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- George Kittle has notched significantly fewer air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (48.0 per game).
- George Kittle’s 39.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 46.2.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
