Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Seahawks vs. Jets
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.9% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 9.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.
- Garrett Wilson has been a big part of his team’s offense, posting a Target Share of 23.0% this year, which places him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 5th-least in the NFL.
- The New York Jets offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the bottom wideouts in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 1st percentile.
- The Seattle Seahawks defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 123.0) versus WRs this year.
- The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has displayed good efficiency against WRs this year, yielding 7.52 yards-per-target to the position: the 6th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Receiving Yards
73
Receiving Yards
