Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Demarcus RobinsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Ravens vs. Steelers
Right now, Demarcus Robinson’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-114).
Pros
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Demarcus Robinson has been a much bigger part of his team’s passing game this year (15.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (6.1%).
- Demarcus Robinson has put up significantly more air yards this year (41.0 per game) than he did last year (23.0 per game).
- Demarcus Robinson has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (34.0) this season than he did last season (22.0).
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has conceded the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the league (162.0) to wide receivers this year.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (60.6%) versus wideouts this year (60.6%).
- The Baltimore Ravens O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.39 seconds before getting pressured (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
