Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-117/-112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-117) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 5.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- Dawson Knox has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).
- Dawson Knox’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 8.00 yards-per-target vs a 9.39 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards
39
Receiving Yards
