Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-117/-112).

The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-117) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 5.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Dawson Knox has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).
Dawson Knox’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 8.00 yards-per-target vs a 9.39 figure last year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards