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Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

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Dawson Knox

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 17

Bengals vs. Bills

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-117/-112).
The public has bet the OVER up to 38.5 (-117) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
  • The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
  • Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among TEs.
  • THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 5.2 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Dawson Knox has accrued substantially fewer receiving yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).
  • Dawson Knox’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 8.00 yards-per-target vs a 9.39 figure last year.

Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards

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