Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Daniel BellingerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Colts
Right now, Daniel Bellinger’s receiving yards prop is set at 22.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 22.5 (-115) after it opened @ 24.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has struggled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in football.
- The New York Giants have incorporated play action on 28.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (10th-most in the NFL), making the defense think run and leading to much higher passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have gone no-huddle on 30.1% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league). This quickens the pace, resulting in more volume and stat accumulation.
Cons
- The Giants are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
- The New York Giants O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has given up the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 39.0) vs. TEs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
