Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Saints
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Philadelphia Eagles will be forced to use backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
- Dallas Goedert has gone out for fewer passes this year (86.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (76.1%).
- Dallas Goedert has been among the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 61.0 yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dallas Goedert has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (52.0 per game).
- The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) vs. tight ends this year.
- The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in football (54.5%) versus TEs this year (54.5%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
