Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-115) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

The Philadelphia Eagles will be forced to use backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
Dallas Goedert has gone out for fewer passes this year (86.8% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (76.1%).
Dallas Goedert has been among the best TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 61.0 yards per game while grading out in the 99th percentile.

Cons

The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Dallas Goedert has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (31.0 per game) than he did last season (52.0 per game).
The New Orleans Saints defense has yielded the least receiving yards per game in football (just 29.0) vs. tight ends this year.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in football (54.5%) versus TEs this year (54.5%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards