Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
D.J. MooreReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, D.J. Moore’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-115) after it opened @ 56.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- D.J. Moore has run a route on 97.7% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects D.J. Moore to notch 7.6 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- D.J. Moore has put up many fewer receiving yards per game (48.0) this year than he did last year (69.0).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) vs. wide receivers this year (62.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
