Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Cole Kmet from EV Insight

Cole KmetReceiving Yards

Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).

Pros

The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
Cole Kmet has run a route on 84.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
Cole Kmet has been among the best pass-game TEs this year, averaging an impressive 31.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Cole Kmet has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards