NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 31.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- Cole Kmet has run a route on 84.1% of his offense’s dropbacks this year, putting him in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has been among the best pass-game TEs this year, averaging an impressive 31.0 yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- Cole Kmet has accumulated far fewer air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
