Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Christian Kirk has gone out for fewer passes this year (94.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.9%).
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- Christian Kirk has notched significantly fewer air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (75.0 per game).
- Christian Kirk’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 72.6% to 68.2%.
- The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 4th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 132.0) versus WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards
64
Receiving Yards
