Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Chris Godwin from EV Insight

Chris GodwinReceiving Yards

Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to garner 8.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (172.0) vs. wideouts this year.

Cons

The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Chris Godwin has totaled far fewer air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
Chris Godwin has posted substantially fewer receiving yards per game (69.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).
Chris Godwin’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 79.6% to 72.4%.

Projection

THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards