Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-110) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Godwin to garner 8.6 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (172.0) vs. wideouts this year.
Cons
- The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Chris Godwin has totaled far fewer air yards this season (60.0 per game) than he did last season (69.0 per game).
- Chris Godwin has posted substantially fewer receiving yards per game (69.0) this year than he did last year (87.0).
- Chris Godwin’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 79.6% to 72.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
72
Receiving Yards
72
Receiving Yards
