Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for CeeDee Lamb from EV Insight

CeeDee LambReceiving Yards

Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-111/-123).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-123) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among WRs.
CeeDee Lamb has been a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this year (29.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (19.7%).
CeeDee Lamb has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (81.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).

Cons

The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards