Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Titans vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-111/-123).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 69.5 (-123) after it opened @ 69.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cowboys to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 7.8 targets in this contest, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among WRs.
- CeeDee Lamb has been a much bigger part of his team’s air attack this year (29.4% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (19.7%).
- CeeDee Lamb has compiled a lot more receiving yards per game (81.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 4th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 50.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Dallas Cowboys have gone up against a stacked the box on just 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
