Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandon Aiyuk from EV Insight

Brandon AiyukReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandon Aiyuk’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 49.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-114).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Brandon Aiyuk to notch 7.3 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (65.0 per game) than he did last year (50.0 per game).
Brandon Aiyuk has posted substantially more receiving yards per game (59.0) this season than he did last season (48.0).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (164.0) to wide receivers this year.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.63 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a measly 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (7th-least in football). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

Projection

THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards