WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Texans are a 3.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 10th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to garner 8.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 8th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, leading opposing offenses to average 28.55 seconds per snap.
- Brandin Cooks has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (75.0 per game) than he did last season (93.0 per game).
- Brandin Cooks’s 54.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 71.8.
- Brandin Cooks has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (49.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has conceded the 6th-lowest Completion% in football (63.9%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.9%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
62
Receiving Yards
62
Receiving Yards
