Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 88.5 yards (-115/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 88.5 (-115) after it opened @ 79.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more important option in his team’s passing offense this season (31.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up significantly more air yards this season (66.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has put up quite a few more receiving yards per game (80.0) this year than he did last year (60.0).
Cons
- The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
101
Receiving Yards
101
Receiving Yards
