WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Packers vs. Vikings
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- Allen Lazard has gone out for fewer passes this season (95.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.2%).
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to notch 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
- Allen Lazard has accrued many more air yards this year (93.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
- The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Cons
- The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
- Allen Lazard’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.5% to 61.9%.
- The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
