Week 17 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Allen Lazard from EV Insight

Allen LazardReceiving Yards

Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

Opposing teams have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
Allen Lazard has gone out for fewer passes this season (95.9% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (78.2%).
THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to notch 7.2 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.
Allen Lazard has accrued many more air yards this year (93.0 per game) than he did last year (41.0 per game).
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all air attack stats across the board.

Cons

The Packers are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 30.43 seconds per play.
Allen Lazard’s possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 70.5% to 61.9%.
The Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best group of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.44 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards