Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
A.J. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Eagles vs. Saints
Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 67.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 67.5 (-115) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Philadelphia Eagles will be forced to use backup quarterback Gardner Minshew in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 59.9 plays per game.
- A.J. Brown has been less involved as a potential target this year (92.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (78.7%).
- A.J. Brown has accumulated a lot more receiving yards per game (82.0) this season than he did last season (71.0).
Cons
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints defense has allowed the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 143.0) versus wideouts this year.
- The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
