Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Trevor Lawrence from EV Insight

Trevor LawrencePassing Yards

Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-106/-129).

The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-106) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).

Pros

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Trevor Lawrence has passed for significantly more yards per game (259.0) this year than he did last year (212.0).

Cons

The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-least yards in football (just 213.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (67.6%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards