Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Texans vs. Jaguars
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 240.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 240.5 (-106) after it opened @ 238.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars have been the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 61.7% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 27.69 seconds per snap.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Trevor Lawrence has passed for significantly more yards per game (259.0) this year than he did last year (212.0).
Cons
- The Jaguars are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 6th-least in football.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 6th-least yards in football (just 213.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense this year.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Houston Texans defense this year (67.6%).
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
251
Passing Yards
251
Passing Yards
