Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 281.5 yards (+108/-148).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 281.5 (-148) after it opened @ 285.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in football versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year (74.1%).
Cons
- The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Tom Brady has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (290.0) this year than he did last year (319.0).
- Tom Brady’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 6.48 yards-per-target compared to a 7.48 mark last year.
- The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.89 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
292
Passing Yards
292
Passing Yards
