Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 281.5 yards (+108/-148).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 281.5 (-148) after it opened @ 285.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 66.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 64.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 40.3 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in football versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year (74.1%).

Cons

The Buccaneers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tom Brady has passed for significantly fewer yards per game (290.0) this year than he did last year (319.0).
Tom Brady’s pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a measly 6.48 yards-per-target compared to a 7.48 mark last year.
The Carolina Panthers defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.89 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
292
Passing Yards