Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Teddy BridgewaterPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Patriots vs. Dolphins
Right now, Teddy Bridgewater’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 238.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins will be forced to use backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
- The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins have run the least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 52.9 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest clip in football vs. the New England Patriots defense this year (67.3%).
- The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.31 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The New England Patriots defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.48 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in the league.
- The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
