Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Darnold from EV Insight

Sam DarnoldPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 180.5 (-115) after it opened @ 187.5 (-115).

Pros

The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Sam Darnold’s passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.9% to 65.0%.

Cons

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.4 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 210.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards