Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Sam DarnoldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Buccaneers vs. Panthers
Right now, Sam Darnold’s passing yards prop is set at 180.5 yards (-110/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 180.5 (-115) after it opened @ 187.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will be rolling out backup QB Sam Darnold in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Panthers are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
- Sam Darnold’s passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 59.9% to 65.0%.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.4 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 210.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
207
Passing Yards
207
Passing Yards
