Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 219.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 219.5 (-110) after it opened @ 220.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Broncos are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
Cons
- Russell Wilson’s throwing precision has worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.3% to 58.3%.
- Russell Wilson has been among the least effective passers in the league this year, averaging just 6.64 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 25th percentile.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 8th-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the best in football since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
270
Passing Yards
270
Passing Yards
