Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 292.5 yards (-114/-114).

The public has bet the OVER up to 292.5 (-114) after it opened @ 285.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.6 passes in this game, on average: the most of all QBs.
Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 332.0 yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.

Cons

The Chiefs are a big 12.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 212.0 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, yielding 6.71 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
298
Passing Yards