Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Patrick MahomesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 292.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 292.5 (-114) after it opened @ 285.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the most offensive plays among all teams this week with 69.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 41.6 passes in this game, on average: the most of all QBs.
- Patrick Mahomes has been among the leading passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 332.0 yards per game while ranking in the 100th percentile.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a big 12.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 212.0 per game) vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, yielding 6.71 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Denver Broncos cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
298
Passing Yards
298
Passing Yards
