WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Nick FolesPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Giants vs. Colts
Right now, Nick Foles’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 203.5 (-135) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will be starting backup quarterback Nick Foles in this week’s game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- The Colts are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.3 plays per game.
- Nick Foles has been among the most on-target passers in football since the start of last season with a terrific 72.3% Completion%, ranking in the 98th percentile.
- The New York Giants linebackers project as the 2nd-worst LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 5th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest rate in football versus the New York Giants defense this year (67.4%).
- The New York Giants defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.76 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.
- The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
218
Passing Yards
218
Passing Yards
