Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-113/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 233.5 (-113) after it opened @ 223.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Opposing offenses have thrown for the 5th-most yards in the league (260.0 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Cons

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
Mac Jones’s passing accuracy has tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.9% to 64.7%.
The Miami Dolphins defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
242
Passing Yards