Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Kirk Cousins from EV Insight

Kirk CousinsPassing Yards

Right now, Kirk Cousins’s passing yards prop is set at 263.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 263.5 (-110) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.75 seconds per snap.
Kirk Cousins has been among the leading quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a terrific 270.0 yards per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.

Cons

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 210.0 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense this year.
The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box against opponents on just 8.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Minnesota Vikings have gone no-huddle on just 4.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

Projection

THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards