Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin HerbertPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Chargers vs. Rams
Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 269.5 (-110) after it opened @ 284.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.1 plays per game.
- The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Herbert to attempt 39.1 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.
- Justin Herbert has been among the best QBs in football this year, averaging a terrific 281.0 yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.
Cons
- The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Justin Herbert has been among the least effective quarterbacks in football this year, averaging just 6.64 yards-per-target while ranking in the lowly 25th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Los Angeles Rams have stacked the box against opponents on just 5.9% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
268
Passing Yards
268
Passing Yards
