Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 177.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the OVER up to 177.5 (-101) after it opened @ 175.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bears are an enormous 8.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in the league.
- Justin Fields’s throwing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.3% to 64.5%.
- Opposing offenses have passed for the 2nd-most yards in football (276.0 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Chicago Bears have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 27.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.
Projection
THE BLITZ
212
Passing Yards
212
Passing Yards
