Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Joe BurrowPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Bengals vs. Bills
Right now, Joe Burrow’s passing yards prop is set at 286.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 286.5 (-110) after it opened @ 280.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 67.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
- Joe Burrow has attempted 38.6 passes per game this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Joe Burrow has passed for a lot more yards per game (293.0) this season than he did last season (266.0).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills pass defense has exhibited good efficiency this year, allowing 7.28 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the NFL.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in football.
- The Buffalo Bills linebackers rank as the 2nd-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
312
Passing Yards
312
Passing Yards
