Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jarrett StidhamPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Raiders vs. 49ers
Right now, Jarrett Stidham’s passing yards prop is set at 201.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 201.5 (-135) after it opened @ 205.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Las Vegas Raiders will be rolling with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- The Raiders are a 6-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 64.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 7.01 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in football.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-least in the league.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the league this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
244
Passing Yards
244
Passing Yards
