NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Lions vs. Bears
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-125) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Jared Goff has attempted 37.0 passes per game this year, ranking in the 76th percentile among QBs.
- Jared Goff has passed for a lot more yards per game (258.0) this year than he did last year (228.0).
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in football versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.1%).
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, giving up 8.46 yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 9th-least yards in football (just 217.0 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
286
Passing Yards
286
Passing Yards
