Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jared Goff from EV Insight

Jared GoffPassing Yards

Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 280.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 280.5 (-125) after it opened @ 267.5 (-115).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Jared Goff has attempted 37.0 passes per game this year, ranking in the 76th percentile among QBs.
Jared Goff has passed for a lot more yards per game (258.0) this year than he did last year (228.0).
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in football versus the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.1%).
The Chicago Bears pass defense has exhibited weak efficiency this year, giving up 8.46 yards-per-target: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Lions to run the 7th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 28.9 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 9th-least yards in football (just 217.0 per game) vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
286
Passing Yards