Week 17 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 233.5 (-110) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 38.0 passes in this week’s contest, on average: the 9th-most of all QBs.
Geno Smith has been among the top quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a stellar 264.0 yards per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Cons

The Seattle Seahawks have called the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.2 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 7th-least yards in football (just 215.0 per game) vs. the New York Jets defense this year.
The New York Jets pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency this year, surrendering 6.94 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in the NFL.
The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the best collection of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
276
Passing Yards