Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Desmond RidderPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Falcons vs. Cardinals
Right now, Desmond Ridder’s passing yards prop is set at 173.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 173.5 (-135) after it opened @ 179.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to call the 5th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.3 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 8th-most in the league.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for the 7th-most yards in football (252.0 per game) vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense this year.
Cons
- The Falcons are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 5th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 54.4 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- The Arizona Cardinals defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
199
Passing Yards
199
Passing Yards
